Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763c6c60df6b650a33e255e2e7494a955ff30259202cd7b49cea0f9864f1155d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 53c | 316.23$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.41 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 56c | 305.23$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 47c | 209.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 53c | 175.85$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 57c | 149.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 127.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 52c | 126.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 15c | 124.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 118.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 115.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 49c | 113.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 46c | 109.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 105.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 105.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 49c | 101.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 53c | 100.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 83.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd090…3bc5backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 67c | 72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 69.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 65.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27e…d4fbbacked Yes | 51c | 60.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 65c | 57.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 52.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 47.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 46c | 43.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 40.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 48c | 36.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 49c | 33.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 52c | 32.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 56c | 30.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…9b1bbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fd0bbacked Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed No | 45c | 27.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 51c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 26.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 40c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 55c | 25.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 50c | 24.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 24.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dd…1b85backed Yes | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 23.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 69c | 20.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.