Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec34aa63f96ef040358d5c070325504a9b160ce6efa8d5f4a6c6ced8bd76cce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 412.72$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 47c | 152.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 128.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 76.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 72.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 69.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 53c | 68.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 63.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 58c | 58.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 56c | 54.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 59c | 51.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 42c | 49.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 49.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 48.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 37c | 47.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 45c | 44.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 60c | 44.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 41c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 47c | 42.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 26c | 38.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cbc8backed Yes | 48c | 36.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked Yes | 40c | 36.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 46c | 35.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 56c | 34.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 43c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 24.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 44c | 23.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b2…5bbdbacked Yes | 55c | 19.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 60c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 70c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.