MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee824e5e3a1c9a5478af66131a9723ccb2da1d46197c985eec27035a499c471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 7,742$5,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,337.96 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 7,321$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,036.93 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.94 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 1,935$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.48 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 69c | 1,536$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 745.03$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.07 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 530.94$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.35 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 466$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.54 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 393.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.55 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Houston Astros | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 69c | 167.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.35 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 146.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 64c | 139$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 38c | 119.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 69c | 107.82$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 51.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 62c | 40.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Houston Astros | 69c | 31.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Houston Astros | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Houston Astros | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.