Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eec0a38c390b5dd6b65764fae837abf99dd03a1055ea372097495632882613e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x792b…0775backed Yes | 0c | 30,338$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 64c | 903.76$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.61 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 13c | 390.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.73 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 239.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 237.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 12c | 200.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 8c | 171.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 11c | 149.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…98b2backed Yes | 69c | 137.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 127.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…46a4backed No | 15c | 121.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 25c | 85.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 59.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 67c | 57.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…61e2backed Yes | 78c | 48.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…be89backed No | 70c | 44.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 44.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 51c | 37.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c76…91a0backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…fe9cbacked No | 70c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e5…a98cbacked Yes | 43c | 33.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…6012backed Yes | 71c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 43c | 24.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 58c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 74c | 20.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b8…bb4abacked Yes | 66c | 20.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…f2acbacked Yes | 67c | 20.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 78c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 69c | 18.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked Yes | 64c | 16.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…a054backed Yes | 68c | 14.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.