Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eef5c3c233acf0a46668f81e0826e6f80c99ec015786ad86a49b10862f07817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Xtreme Gaming, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x031d…db9dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 899.99$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 156 | 53.2%83 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Xtreme Gaming | 5c | 508.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453e…eabcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 460$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 427.74$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.53 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 40c | 411.15$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 300$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 271.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 244.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 207.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b1d7backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 198.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 190.54$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 172.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 149 | 65.8%98 W · 51 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 18c | 140.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 113.33$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 105.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Natus Vincere | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 98.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…811ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 97.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e47bbacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…46b5backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 62.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…18fdbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 51.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f8…6dcebacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 44.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a5…2caebacked Xtreme Gaming | 37c | 43.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 39.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 36.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 31.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d4…b96cbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…24dcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 27.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…ffd1backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 22.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…c8f4backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.