TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Xtreme Gaming, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,009 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming49c6,000$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,940.6427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Xtreme Gaming52c5,934$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Natus Vincere47c5,555$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.3732854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere43c5,042$2,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.522,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere52c2,586$1,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.271,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere60c2,337$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.820949.3%103 W · 106 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Xtreme Gaming46c2,018$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.1877941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Xtreme Gaming50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming39c1,639$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.392,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere43c1,623$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.631,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Natus Vincere51c1,574$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.1318143.6%79 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere47c1,517$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.9345139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4e1abacked Natus Vincere51c1,450$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.54146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming23c1,419$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.241,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…22dabacked Xtreme Gaming68c1,310$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b66…68b8backed Xtreme Gaming53c1,264$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5f7…7714backed Xtreme Gaming64c1,221$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.07650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere54c1,165$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.781,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Xtreme Gaming52c967.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012851.6%66 W · 62 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Natus Vincere62c950.68$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8962650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…886abacked Xtreme Gaming35c857.33$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.452931%9 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Xtreme Gaming64c781.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f9…db30backed Xtreme Gaming40c753.78$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ca…87d1backed Xtreme Gaming68c738.65$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2819552.8%103 W · 92 L-15.2wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed Xtreme Gaming50c713.58$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.7931545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere33c600$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40279559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Natus Vincere34c592.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8845940.5%186 W · 273 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Natus Vincere40c589$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.47950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a1…5062backed Xtreme Gaming44c568.18$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021346.5%99 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fb…95fbbacked Xtreme Gaming53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008854.5%48 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Natus Vincere40c494.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.7841655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Xtreme Gaming48c482.52$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.345046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Natus Vincere61c454.08$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.086566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere60c440.63$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1766662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Xtreme Gaming47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009959.6%59 W · 40 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Xtreme Gaming9c399.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610850%54 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Natus Vincere51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.164748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefff…2d98backed Xtreme Gaming43c380.66$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6916445.7%75 W · 89 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming51c370.42$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.6287645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere50c359.41$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4126957.6%155 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8e…156fbacked Natus Vincere45c335.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.944252.4%22 W · 20 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+18.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9fa8…591bbacked Natus Vincere62c320.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.551250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked Xtreme Gaming27c299.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8045052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Xtreme Gaming51c299.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9988166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed Natus Vincere62c243.31$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.858833%29 W · 59 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Natus Vincere50c223$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere50c213.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.571,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Xtreme Gaming38c210.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0877258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Xtreme Gaming51c210.48$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb12…4210backed Natus Vincere44c209.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.051952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Xtreme Gaming30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.863032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad69…7397backed Natus Vincere50c190.18$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7951140.3%206 W · 305 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere50c188.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.135550.9%28 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Xtreme Gaming53c173.28$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1143647.5%207 W · 229 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere47c168.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6960542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming64c150$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9659250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Xtreme Gaming53c144.43$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4958152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere74c142.68$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.261,89447.7%903 W · 991 L+6.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eab…211bbacked Xtreme Gaming68c142.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97825%2 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-67.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x22f5…795bbacked Xtreme Gaming41c129.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536160.7%37 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Xtreme Gaming23c110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.216821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Natus Vincere49c104.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7824052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.048636%31 W · 55 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf142…03cbbacked Natus Vincere50c100.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.29137.4%34 W · 57 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Xtreme Gaming47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4722954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Xtreme Gaming49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4996942.8%415 W · 554 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed Xtreme Gaming53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5353757.7%310 W · 227 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Natus Vincere41c99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4134044.4%151 W · 189 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c7…2331backed Xtreme Gaming45c86.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked Natus Vincere73c85.44$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0726859%158 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecf0…0d38backed Xtreme Gaming53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9332…a3dbbacked Xtreme Gaming52c74.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9876048.6%369 W · 391 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x209f…0eb4backed Natus Vincere78c73.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.253348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Xtreme Gaming45c65.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3554445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Natus Vincere62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5259456.7%337 W · 257 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Xtreme Gaming48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3017448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Xtreme Gaming20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Natus Vincere48c58.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6845951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Xtreme Gaming31c53.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Xtreme Gaming47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Xtreme Gaming53c51.43$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2620452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aa0…f987backed Natus Vincere64c45.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.31540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b5bbacked Xtreme Gaming45c44.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Xtreme Gaming48c41.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2035361.2%216 W · 137 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Xtreme Gaming50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Xtreme Gaming52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020149.8%100 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked Natus Vincere41c36.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5730543%131 W · 174 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+52.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b24…e53bbacked Xtreme Gaming51c33.43$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…2561backed Natus Vincere49c30.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3631659.8%189 W · 127 L+18.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5524…2f3cbacked Xtreme Gaming52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66844.1%30 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe175…7d48backed Natus Vincere46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.25846.6%27 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e56…eca5backed Xtreme Gaming44c25.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.322055%11 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d31…07b0backed Xtreme Gaming65c24.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9825255.2%139 W · 113 L+1.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x355c…81c5backed Xtreme Gaming53c24.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.958448.8%41 W · 43 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b5…5414backed Xtreme Gaming52c23.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.211855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ba…9fecbacked Natus Vincere50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaed7…baa3backed Xtreme Gaming50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1031648.7%154 W · 162 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c7…24c2backed Xtreme Gaming51c19.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213061.5%80 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Natus Vincere74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.925648%123 W · 133 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.