Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9b3df1bc3e611e8b6fb2f21b78eb350ae1869429fc4d97308bb8abc21cc946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Xtreme Gaming, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 18,213$10,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,898.83 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 6,000$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.48 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 5,380$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.39 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 4,190$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.74 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 4,059$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.95 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 3,958$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.86 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 3,614$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.33 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Xtreme Gaming | 41c | 3,567$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.99 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…ed23backed Xtreme Gaming | 2c | 3,462$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…5b10backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 3,002$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…55d2backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 2,939$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 2,931$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,434.37 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 2,901$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.38 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 1,869$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.7 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 39c | 1,579$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.6 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Xtreme Gaming | 3c | 1,331$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 855.69$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.07 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 810.78$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.29 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 803.4$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 555.21$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.91 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 544$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.52 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…591bbacked Natus Vincere | 59c | 510.33$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 464.01$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.51 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 447.26$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…72babacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 354.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…db30backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 317.85$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Xtreme Gaming | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 300$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…2331backed Xtreme Gaming | 14c | 297.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 280$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 268.47$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 240$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…1a44backed Xtreme Gaming | 44c | 220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 204.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Xtreme Gaming | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Xtreme Gaming | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 198.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed Natus Vincere | 56c | 176.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 174.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…4210backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Xtreme Gaming | 35c | 149.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Xtreme Gaming | 42c | 118.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 459 | 51.9%238 W · 221 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 116.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 94.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 93.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Xtreme Gaming | 21c | 93.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 89.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b5bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 28c | 88.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…2aabbacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…0799backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 74.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Xtreme Gaming | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 70.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 67.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 58.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed Xtreme Gaming | 51c | 57.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 54.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 51.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc98…b902backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 41.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 37.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…fc0ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce7…7ed4backed Natus Vincere | 52c | 23.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Xtreme Gaming | 46c | 21.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.