Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. sovereign wealth fund operational in Trump's first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f16479052592742f98dfa9603eddb75ff97752e5f73f194f2765632a95ada26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 10c | 4,562$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.98 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 7c | 3,615$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 8c | 3,216$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 13c | 3,079$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 2,778$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.57 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 2,221$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.11 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked Yes | 11c | 2,054$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 80c | 1,334$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Yes | 13c | 993.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 1c | 819.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes | 14c | 725.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 13c | 692.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 13c | 552.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 488.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 12c | 473.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…6096backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d2…8f47backed Yes | 13c | 346.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 17c | 217.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2d…c880backed Yes | 11c | 183.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 18c | 175$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 6c | 163.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…388fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6909…f84bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f21…62efbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…e526backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.