NHL · resolved market
DEL: Adler Mannheim vs. EHC Red Bull Muenchen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f2dcae8bd048c5477e78d841bba449684ef8aaf81f9883865b8e666c9d7812b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adler Mannheimof Adler Mannheim, EHC Red Bull Muenchen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f26…be98backed Adler Mannheim | 61c | 589.52$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c0…03a9backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 5c | 491$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Adler Mannheim | 57c | 322.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.87 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 39c | 297.95$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 39c | 279.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fc…e97ebacked Adler Mannheim | 60c | 208.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 47c | 129.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Adler Mannheim | 75c | 112.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 43c | 105.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 32c | 94.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…9070backed Adler Mannheim | 57c | 85.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adler Mannheim | 74c | 77.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 42c | 71.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 43c | 67.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Adler Mannheim | 47c | 45.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…0d61backed Adler Mannheim | 60c | 40.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Adler Mannheim | 54c | 39.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked EHC Red Bull Muenchen | 43c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Adler Mannheim | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…610dbacked Adler Mannheim | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Adler Mannheim | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165b…711cbacked Adler Mannheim | 56c | 18.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.