Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f64a06f9613d8c8be02702fbce5992c8726ced56cb1bd7cf5f8934b1b099d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 800.56$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 662.05$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.11 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…4765backed Under | 45c | 657.56$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 8c | 633.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 49c | 524.27$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 56c | 437.69$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 307.5$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 55c | 280.19$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 11c | 224$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 45c | 178.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 49c | 140.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 63.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 56c | 52.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 41.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 33.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 30.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 47c | 21.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 53c | 19.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.