Token Launches · resolved market
Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f69a1b89879c28df9a987b882b2b7b8b63d6d415b689ba00cf2e4e2e4732315
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 3c | 4,634$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11eb…3f13backed No | 1c | 4,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 3c | 1,462$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…6924backed No | 15c | 1,055$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 820.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 6c | 639.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed No | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…5d8cbacked No | 10c | 288.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 199.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 7c | 171.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…3c01backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch?this page
- Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Elsa FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Elsa FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.