Token Launches · resolved market
Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe01f6fb8fb89a1e3ae44be887b658ff8d80b2aba97427d72ad387f229de8aaf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 69c | 4,491$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed No | 28c | 3,000$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,579$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 57c | 1,177$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 749.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 22c | 717$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 5c | 611.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…18ddbacked No | 34c | 596.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 66c | 571.16$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 499.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 13c | 487.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 15c | 435.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…6924backed No | 43c | 415$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.65 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 43c | 397.49$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.24 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed No | 27c | 378.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 364.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 353.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 56c | 335.91$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked Yes | 75c | 306.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed No | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…27a4backed No | 42c | 239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 18c | 227.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 197.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 33c | 169.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 11c | 166.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 165.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 17c | 156$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 73c | 150.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 140.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 10c | 124.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 18c | 118.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 19c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…257dbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…13ebbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes | 77c | 99.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 24c | 97.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 33c | 82.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 17c | 78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24f9…ed77backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…fc6abacked Yes | 74c | 54.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…d53ebacked Yes | 74c | 51.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Elsa FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Elsa FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.