Token Launches · resolved market
Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d50fa0a5e41a545f28c1c25b15ae52e847ebacb86e4c3418550df96d46cdb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c4…93a7backed No | 5c | 6,359$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.87 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…5f4cbacked No | 78c | 5,004$3,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,895.21 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 18c | 4,007$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,285.47 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 41c | 2,971$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.55 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 23c | 2,229$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.41 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 57c | 2,200$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed No | 76c | 1,807$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.27 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,628$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 52c | 1,447$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.06 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…f99cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,409$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 31c | 1,400$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…384dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,254$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 1,198$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.98 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -82%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…9774backed Yes | 48c | 1,169$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 6c | 883.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 839.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…66cabacked No | 4c | 763.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 35c | 549.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…896ebacked Yes | 69c | 534.03$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 9c | 529.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed Yes | 70c | 509.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 79c | 495.6$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 486.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 68c | 476$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 46c | 441.86$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.82 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 404.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 39c | 382$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.35 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 72c | 361.12$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked No | 40c | 359.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked Yes | 67c | 351$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…6924backed Yes | 61c | 309.94$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e5…fee1backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 76c | 299.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 48c | 274.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.21 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 254.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 247.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 72c | 235.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…1bb7backed Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…d53ebacked Yes | 66c | 208.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed No | 7c | 205.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 13c | 182.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…349ebacked Yes | 79c | 156.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22bc…68d5backed Yes | 21c | 138.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +373.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…0111backed Yes | 24c | 110.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…9b1cbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…806bbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 51c | 91.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…81c4backed No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 19c | 87.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Yes | 43c | 85.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 44c | 78.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 41c | 78.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 15c | 75.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…0915backed Yes | 59c | 75.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…219cbacked Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe841…a62ebacked No | 78c | 63.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 23c | 61.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…579fbacked No | 43c | 58.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 40c | 54.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…adc4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…f32bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 66c | 49.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 36c | 47.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7f…6c2bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed No | 55c | 36.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…9f09backed No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 61c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…f14ebacked No | 67c | 29.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 59c | 28.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…74aabacked Yes | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Elsa FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Elsa FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Elsa FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Elsa FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Elsa FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.