Tennis · resolved market
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Natalija Senic vs Ariana Geerlings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f7b1786930d42c7a0ff990fbb33191c0768dd2eac166f8a98e67cde2cf63e4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ariana Geerlingsof Natalija Senic, Ariana Geerlings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef53…4591backed Ariana Geerlings | 51c | 1,963$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.75 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Natalija Senic | 49c | 1,863$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.75 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…57adbacked Natalija Senic | 31c | 650.37$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ariana Geerlings | 67c | 531.68$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Ariana Geerlings | 71c | 515.05$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Natalija Senic | 42c | 341.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb76…df01backed Natalija Senic | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Natalija Senic | 47c | 137$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Natalija Senic | 53c | 112.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ariana Geerlings | 61c | 107.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Natalija Senic | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Natalija Senic | 43c | 95.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ariana Geerlings | 49c | 73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Natalija Senic | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Ariana Geerlings | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ariana Geerlings | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ariana Geerlings | 63c | 36.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Ariana Geerlings | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Ariana Geerlings | 69c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.