Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fea103b685f1bd973720f3099a9f70a186928f0b5e3596b11aec2c78ec82910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 1,700$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 2c | 1,691$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 879.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 538.96$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 54c | 465.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.38 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed No | 10c | 440.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 433.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 399.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.23 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 294.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 287.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 281.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 61c | 213.29$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 192.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 160.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 150.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 23c | 142.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 23c | 140.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.74 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 8c | 132.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 126$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 12c | 119.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 10c | 117.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 104.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 21c | 103.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 59c | 101.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 100.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 18c | 75.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 22c | 75.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 21c | 57.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 52.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 52.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 23c | 50.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 44.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 23c | 43.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…c418backed Yes | 48c | 39.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 68c | 35.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 71c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 31.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 30.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 70c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…a8d7backed Yes | 46c | 26.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 63c | 24.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 24.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 57c | 19.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 75c | 13.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.