Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb38feb3e22c46f27856ea20916bf0c16ee7e87405879d92805a5ffa89e596113
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 12c | 485.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 406$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 8c | 376.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 69c | 346.56$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.72 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 327.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 295.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 269.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 13c | 258.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 18c | 233.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 14c | 194.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 18c | 153.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 8c | 137.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 133.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 110.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 11c | 103.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…c418backed Yes | 21c | 84.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 65c | 81.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed Yes | 20c | 75.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 77c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 73.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 63.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 56.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 56.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 53.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 77c | 52.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 27c | 52.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 50.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 28.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 77c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 76c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.