NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Ak Bars Kazan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90028e3f8664cfd323084a34e5b646a2524c7317b0dd257c859a6d9ff08a9567
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ak Bars Kazanof Avangard Omsk, Ak Bars Kazan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 830$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ak Bars Kazan | 40c | 825.05$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.72 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Avangard Omsk | 67c | 519.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.6 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Ak Bars Kazan | 43c | 232.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 41c | 219.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.79 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Ak Bars Kazan | 40c | 212.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…d4a9backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…f1f6backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 166.04$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Ak Bars Kazan | 40c | 105.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Avangard Omsk | 58c | 84.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Avangard Omsk | 60c | 83.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ak Bars Kazan | 28c | 74.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf5…7d72backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Avangard Omsk | 63c | 50.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Ak Bars Kazan | 46c | 39.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Avangard Omsk | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…4ad6backed Avangard Omsk | 59c | 27.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Avangard Omsk | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25a…f243backed Avangard Omsk | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.