Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90037cd8d6272eb36809d0620884313e14890eaed6be9185d2341e3395a801db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 5,292$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.02 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 3,955$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.46 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 18c | 2,812$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.16 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 76c | 1,936$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 71c | 985.92$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.92 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 17c | 685.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 23c | 636.16$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Over | 68c | 516.49$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.49 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…32dfbacked Under | 17c | 438.47$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 389.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516a…e1b2backed Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 64c | 142.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 206 | 44.7%92 W · 114 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -12.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 61c | 85.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 39c | 78.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed Under | 19c | 56.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 27c | 45.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 209 | 31.6%66 W · 143 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 44.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 79c | 31.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 60c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 158 | 66.5%105 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…4a9dbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…9725backed Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…bc38backed Over | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 77c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8993…222dbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.