Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b4380e3ea5a5da69c10b5e34a93d45f941c4c1db04525e36e4f15ffa8c6b1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 7,617$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.51 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 74c | 7,100$5,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 2,665$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.96 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 71c | 1,799$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.76 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 38c | 1,603$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.14 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…854cbacked Under | 67c | 1,475$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 62c | 898.52$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.78 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Under | 64c | 600$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 336.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…2c90backed Over | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 37c | 298.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 20c | 262.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 38c | 197.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 38c | 163$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 301 | 43.9%132 W · 169 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Under | 76c | 161.01$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71d…3f27backed Under | 65c | 154.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 39c | 149.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 116.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 38c | 103.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 62c | 99.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Over | 37c | 53.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 38c | 53.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 63c | 42.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 38c | 33.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa356…b3f8backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Over | 37c | 30.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…cce4backed Under | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcb…9fdcbacked Under | 63c | 21.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed Under | 63c | 19.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 61c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 330 | 57%188 W · 142 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Under | 63c | 16.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.