Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 260-279 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9012628678d61ad71b91ae57855dc353cb8843ea979e547031261346b256277f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Yes | 23c | 828.3$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 13c | 606$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed No | 78c | 395.4$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1cc…e644backed Yes | 16c | 289.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…9dfcbacked Yes | 17c | 269.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 29c | 234.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 60c | 212.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Yes | 26c | 187.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 145.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…7affbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 37c | 44.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 260-279 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 180-199 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-219 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220-239 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240-259 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280-299 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 300 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 180 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.