Stocks · resolved market
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9026c6858187d177746af0e93802c7a74e2165886fbdc8e7697c16139c9516b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 36c | 270.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 63c | 114.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 17c | 92.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 70.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 43.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…91d1backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…a6a0backed Yes | 60c | 17.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…375dbacked Yes | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa52b…a42cbacked Yes | 68c | 16.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…d2e9backed Yes | 67c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…ec26backed Yes | 65c | 15.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…3a2cbacked Yes | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?this page
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $225-$230 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $240-$245 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at <$225 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$270 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.