Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90514eafc3b8ec37603905be9965b3d20b930601541728e589c81bbbe7a30321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 766.03$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.93 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 347.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 287.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 54c | 213.37$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 194.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 186.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 32c | 155.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 143.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 73c | 142.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 58c | 139.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 132.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 40c | 128.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…a89dbacked Yes | 46c | 113.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 98.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 41c | 97.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 92.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 66c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 62c | 72.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 68.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 35c | 66.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 54c | 63.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 70c | 55.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…fae8backed Yes | 45c | 55.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 69c | 54.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 54.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 20c | 49.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed Yes | 36c | 46.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 45.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 63c | 44.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 70c | 44.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 41c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 69c | 42.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 42.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 42.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 35c | 41.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 37c | 40.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 39.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 31c | 38.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 68c | 36.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 35.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…2ea2backed Yes | 46c | 32.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90d…ce28backed Yes | 67c | 30.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 41c | 29.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…f7a9backed Yes | 53c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 72c | 26.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 47c | 25.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…12e1backed Yes | 39c | 25.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed No | 73c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 23.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 65c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 21.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 48c | 21.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 19.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 71c | 19.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 18.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…6eacbacked No | 73c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 67c | 17.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 66c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 71c | 16.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.