Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a709acca5236ace986f61c3da73f132a5283ea05a4a1dc5247a85242ada0b42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,224$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 60c | 828.12$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.09 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 73c | 753$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.08 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 630.13$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 2c | 616.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 77c | 553.58$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.67 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 70c | 412.91$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 39c | 390.17$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 335.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 45c | 300.8$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 282.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.98 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 12c | 179.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.96 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 174.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 56c | 167.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 22c | 166.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 164.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 15c | 157.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 74c | 152.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 21c | 150.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 147.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 147.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 144.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 19c | 144.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.37 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 75c | 142.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 79c | 139.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 136.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 74c | 134.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 25c | 127$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 122.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 120.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 18c | 120.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.7 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed Yes | 46c | 111.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 110.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 98.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 17c | 89.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 57c | 79.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…3480backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +192.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 28c | 73.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 59.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 75c | 58.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 38c | 57.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 34c | 54.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Yes | 28c | 51.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 51.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed Yes | 52c | 49.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 47.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 27c | 43.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe024…dc75backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 62c | 32.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 32.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 50c | 31.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 49c | 30.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…47a3backed No | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 63c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 40c | 27.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 70c | 18.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 64c | 18.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 18.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 68c | 17.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 53°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.