Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x905ac72aa929fffb96a5439f696d4a9cf4f2b6e8917764fde7e8096b7f99a8a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Jodar, Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Busta | 37c | 969$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.79 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Busta | 36c | 599.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.99 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Jodar | 64c | 581.25$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Jodar | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Jodar | 66c | 255.15$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Busta | 34c | 230.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Jodar | 7c | 216.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Busta | 39c | 163.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…2242backed Jodar | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…594bbacked Jodar | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Jodar | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Jodar | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…da0cbacked Jodar | 64c | 86.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Busta | 38c | 79.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf126…a54cbacked Jodar | 62c | 79.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…51eebacked Jodar | 63c | 78.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Jodar | 59c | 35.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Busta | 41c | 35.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Jodar | 64c | 22.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)this page
- Jodar vs. Busta: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Jodar vs. Busta: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rafael Jodar vs. Pablo Carreno Busta: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs BustaBusta won
- Set 2 Winner: Jodar vs BustaJodar won
- Set 4 Winner: Jodar vs BustaJodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-2.5) vs Busta (+2.5)Busta won
- Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno BustaRafael Jodar won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.