Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90931c44ef67711c6f220553494557aab93511b1c083e3d3a51c989ca4c34f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 31c | 3,153$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.57 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 69c | 2,944$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.7 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 9c | 2,391$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,452$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 67c | 980.2$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.47 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 20c | 952$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked No | 69c | 853.39$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.55 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 5c | 808.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 14c | 781.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked No | 68c | 721.18$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.78 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 639.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 597.42$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 33c | 581.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Yes | 33c | 581.7$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 30c | 575.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.43 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 6c | 569.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 67c | 555$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked No | 69c | 426.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 33c | 290.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 67c | 209.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 32c | 206.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 191$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 67c | 149.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Yes | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 67c | 139$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fc…c7eabacked Yes | 11c | 131.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 67c | 105.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Yes | 33c | 101.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581a…8e5fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 76c | 87.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 24c | 81.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…70c8backed Yes | 21c | 53.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 67c | 43.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 67c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed No | 67c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 67c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked No | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 67c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-24?this page
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.