Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7ec6df66e74e890310a6710bbc932e1416ad535f9521202ca9ff6b860cb9c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 10c | 5,650$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 3,829$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.77 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 2c | 2,132$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 21c | 2,007$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.81 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 72c | 1,590$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.65 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 9c | 1,436$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked No | 19c | 994.09$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 2c | 862.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed No | 19c | 675.69$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 8c | 643.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 42c | 628.52$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.54 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 78c | 597.15$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 60c | 547.02$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.3 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Yes | 42c | 459.62$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.58 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 60c | 442.47$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.53 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…98c3backed No | 17c | 430.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed No | 59c | 330.64$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 80c | 296.4$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e07…80d1backed No | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 41c | 222$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 35c | 199.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked No | 9c | 196.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Yes | 40c | 191.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Yes | 61c | 173.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 80c | 162.87$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 58c | 155.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 58c | 147.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Yes | 42c | 114.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 60c | 99.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 22c | 99.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…4982backed Yes | 41c | 99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked No | 13c | 87.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 59c | 78.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 59c | 70.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 59c | 70.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 21c | 62.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Yes | 41c | 62.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…3553backed Yes | 41c | 61.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Yes | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed Yes | 46c | 41.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 59c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbea…7777backed Yes | 43c | 33.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 47c | 30.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked No | 34c | 29.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes | 75c | 25.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ab…93c6backed No | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…e5e1backed No | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…5feebacked No | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked No | 63c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…4a5bbacked No | 61c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-04-24?this page
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-24?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.