AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9096773317cd82c9d099e88fdeb10040d60c0f66dc07f61b46bea61a0c674cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 42c | 567.21$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.09 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed No | 53c | 456.67$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 3c | 410.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 6c | 352.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked Yes | 33c | 272.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 13c | 149.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes | 73c | 134.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13d…6928backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 41c | 99.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0200…d820backed Yes | 61c | 64.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e7…4aebbacked Yes | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…15b6backed Yes | 52c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 56c | 39.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x774e…d639backed Yes | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 70c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…a259backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 15.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?this page
- Will Anthropic have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?No won
- Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.