MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90dfbf110995bca95e83609c94fe719f5c4130c140a3bd6fb3c8811fe13b952b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Twinsof Twins, Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Red Sox | 68c | 8,107$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503.48 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Twins | 33c | 5,255$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,528.02 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 35c | 4,376$1,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,848.26 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 19c | 4,370$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.51 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Red Sox | 21c | 2,491$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.04 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Twins | 33c | 2,476$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.86 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Red Sox | 69c | 2,380$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.22 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…2114backed Red Sox | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4249backed Red Sox | 10c | 955.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Twins | 33c | 848$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.12 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Red Sox | 64c | 780.21$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Twins | 37c | 675.68$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.68 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Twins | 51c | 534.78$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.46 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox | 22c | 532.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox | 66c | 531.01$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.34 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Twins | 38c | 481.38$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.01 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Red Sox | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Twins | 77c | 315.58$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Twins | 33c | 212$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Twins | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox | 41c | 194.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Red Sox | 63c | 137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Twins | 43c | 121$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Twins | 37c | 112.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…88d5backed Red Sox | 65c | 108.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 32c | 103.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Red Sox | 75c | 81.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f1bbacked Twins | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 65c | 61.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Twins | 68c | 50.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Red Sox | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Twins | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Red Sox | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Red Sox | 63c | 44.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Red Sox | 39c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Twins | 36c | 38.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed Red Sox | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Red Sox | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Red Sox | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Red Sox | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.