Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna vs. Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90fee3c9584add01f76e9ba872a04301d144cc4a853384c0259b3fa3ce6ff83f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 68c | 1,862$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.91 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 949.95$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 32c | 924.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.06 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 32c | 840.63$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Yes | 28c | 721.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 32c | 712.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Yes | 33c | 630$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.9 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 70c | 520.21$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.42 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 69c | 394.42$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…b7bebacked Yes | 22c | 392$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 365$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 32c | 251$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 29c | 165.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 67c | 139.04$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +211.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 32c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…64e1backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna vs. Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna win on 2025-11-09?Yes won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.