Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a06b3f4bd406d993e844a6ba421330887a9a345a7424b473b175750d9524ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 77c | 55,048$42,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,515.52 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 6c | 49,999$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,249.96 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 69c | 14,498$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 31c | 7,408$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,109.09 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 5,546$3,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,743.64 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,450 | 210 | 58.6%123 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 32c | 2,396$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.49 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked No | 1c | 1,386$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 32c | 846.88$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.88 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 619.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.15 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed No | 67c | 600$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed No | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 35c | 570.16$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.68 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 25c | 568.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 31c | 535$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.15 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…133cbacked Yes | 26c | 493.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 33c | 281$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.27 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 71c | 259$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 25c | 196$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 33c | 160$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 13c | 157.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…7c48backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 25c | 140.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 30c | 112.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.41 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 69c | 101$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde8…aa8fbacked Yes | 32c | 92.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1449…df20backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…89babacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 73c | 51.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc909…1ab1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked No | 68c | 36.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 35.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…57d4backed Yes | 32c | 32.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…089bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…96d2backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…3444backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…f663backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…5412backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…b19fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will Bologna vs. Napoli end in a draw?No won
- Will Napoli win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.