Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x911d1bdc2882d5ca3edb2090634a8b3e09a1ecc4b3967a1df03dfdda0d6261ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d42…f9ddbacked Yes | 19c | 3,100$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 59c | 894.95$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.92 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 361.65$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked No | 27c | 351$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…57e6backed No | 75c | 204.15$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 32c | 184.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed Yes | 57c | 153$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 149.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 149.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 144.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 54c | 120.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 30c | 112.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ea8ebacked Yes | 30c | 104.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +177.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 24c | 102.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…ab15backed Yes | 27c | 98.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 94.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.67 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked Yes | 31c | 91.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…fa39backed Yes | 39c | 89.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…af5fbacked No | 69c | 86.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 27c | 86.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 59c | 86.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 66c | 81.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1b…d409backed Yes | 28c | 80.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +252%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 80.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 72c | 71.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…d9dfbacked Yes | 23c | 70.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 65.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 41c | 52.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 25c | 49.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 71c | 46.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 26c | 46.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 73c | 46.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bf…5190backed Yes | 25c | 44.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…02ebbacked Yes | 34c | 44.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 48c | 41.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 43c | 40.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 79c | 40.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 41c | 37.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…ddb8backed Yes | 32c | 36.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…ea07backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 32c | 35.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3e…6319backed Yes | 56c | 34.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c45…7aa4backed No | 56c | 28.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341a…973dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +74%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…7e80backed Yes | 72c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…6974backed Yes | 72c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 21.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.