Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce8b799241abe39707fab28a3f04c3fc0ab4a0ef6923cf75fee1ad973e73073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd833…ba96backed Yes | 9c | 2,818$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…21dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,763$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.81 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…57e6backed Yes | 53c | 965.44$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…ff18backed Yes | 5c | 668.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 559.53$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.28 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 293.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 269.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 39c | 241.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 53c | 229.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 53c | 178.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 159.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…1eebbacked No | 57c | 131.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 42c | 124.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 24c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 96.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…76a2backed Yes | 62c | 90.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 59c | 84.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 44c | 81.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 80.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Yes | 59c | 64.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 54c | 61.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…813cbacked Yes | 55c | 59.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 55.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 56c | 46.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 46.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 42c | 44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea50…4929backed No | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 49c | 37.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked Yes | 53c | 35.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 55c | 35.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 51c | 32.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 31.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 44c | 31.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 65c | 28.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 72c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…bfd5backed Yes | 62c | 27.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe713…4b06backed Yes | 80c | 23.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 63c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 75c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on February 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.