Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9124330c80cec10a6e22543388547d60614804d67f9b70f6c11fdabfbc6567b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $229,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70a4…eff2backed Yes | 2c | 35,532$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.8 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…c004backed Yes | 6c | 21,343$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.03 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 20,324$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…6047backed Yes | 0c | 12,912$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 6c | 12,458$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 3c | 10,911$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.68 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,658$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,282$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…abeabacked Yes | 4c | 7,129$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.71 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 4,782$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.97 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…dc19backed Yes | 7c | 4,382$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…472cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,970$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…96a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,711$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,218$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…bfd2backed Yes | 2c | 3,165$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…30babacked Yes | 7c | 2,884$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…98ccbacked Yes | 9c | 2,827$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07a…98f7backed Yes | 8c | 2,346$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.69 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes | 4c | 2,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…168ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,106$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,998$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,687$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2a…cbefbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…9c3cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…ba2bbacked Yes | 3c | 844.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…aebebacked Yes | 6c | 777.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…a9dabacked Yes | 16c | 628.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked Yes | 4c | 610.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…da73backed Yes | 4c | 603.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4275…f5febacked Yes | 2c | 583.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af2…77ecbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 463.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…25b5backed Yes | 18c | 316.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 285.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…52efbacked Yes | 7c | 267.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…5f94backed Yes | 11c | 216.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 11c | 100.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…1617backed Yes | 16c | 67.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 79c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.08 in July?No won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.18 in July?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in July?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in July?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.29 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.