Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x913d2611bd9fa88ce1c21d96aa91c7fd5db98246bbe46498e923dfec50c8b649
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 76c | 256.58$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 75c | 235.86$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 229.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Yes | 39c | 220$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7a…7839backed No | 61c | 220$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 11c | 155.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 63c | 101.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 91.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 65c | 87.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 87.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 74.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes | 19c | 73.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 21c | 73.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes | 28c | 70.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 19c | 69.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 43c | 59.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…b3a4backed Yes | 23c | 51.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…6199backed Yes | 22c | 46.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 75c | 39.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…3385backed Yes | 46c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…a28ebacked No | 70c | 32.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…3a8ebacked No | 77c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed No | 68c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…cd23backed No | 73c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on January 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.