Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91414a9456e606eea824a44dc202488950bf66f79acb224d9fb85f71a9a5ec78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 33c | 216.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 23c | 199.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…1e16backed No | 40c | 173$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 55c | 155.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 11c | 152.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 72c | 146.77$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 61c | 143.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 74c | 116.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 45c | 115.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 25c | 110.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 75c | 106$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 17c | 97.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 28c | 83.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 24c | 80.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 20c | 79.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 77.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 68c | 72.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 73c | 66.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 38c | 62.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 55c | 58.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 43c | 55.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 46c | 54.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 76c | 52.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 71c | 52.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed Yes | 76c | 48.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked Yes | 72c | 48.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 56c | 47.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 59c | 45.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…3e9dbacked No | 52c | 44.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 76c | 42.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 72c | 42.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed Yes | 69c | 42.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 55c | 42.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 63c | 40.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 46c | 40.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 75c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 77c | 37.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 78c | 37.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 35.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed Yes | 76c | 34.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 34.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 57c | 34.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 34c | 33.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 64c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 40c | 31.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 80c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 72c | 28.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 75c | 27.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 54c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 26.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 42c | 24.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 66c | 21.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 60c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 71c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 57c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 78c | 16.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.