MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9142dde0dc91b586e7cebfba1ed9b455460afd1b48a6c8a6d5c263436c71977f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 55c | 538.22$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 39c | 371.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Kansas City Royals | 12c | 367.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 56c | 268.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 260.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros | 40c | 255$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 39c | 237.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 8c | 198.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 196.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Kansas City Royals | 18c | 129$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 121$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Houston Astros | 40c | 120.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 115.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 77c | 111.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 40c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 28c | 81.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 73.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 20c | 73.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 39c | 56.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Houston Astros | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 49.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Kansas City Royals | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 62c | 41.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 21.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City RoyalsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.