TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$332,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$349,656

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $332,401 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Kansas City Royals30c53,450$16,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,129.831,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595d…9ad0backed Kansas City Royals7c34,010$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.3312342.3%52 W · 71 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros75c29,293$21,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,390.3610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Houston Astros52c14,069$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,753.231,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d3…709abacked Kansas City Royals6c14,056$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.428220.7%17 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Houston Astros51c12,800$6,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,271.9244851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros61c10,469$6,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.398,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals28c10,203$2,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,835.044,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Kansas City Royals49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90044945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde49…fe85backed Kansas City Royals24c10,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40048451%247 W · 237 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Kansas City Royals49c6,235$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.661,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Kansas City Royals49c4,081$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8360451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros52c3,328$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.712,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Kansas City Royals49c3,026$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.7492054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros53c3,025$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.536,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Kansas City Royals48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,44077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b74…0482backed Kansas City Royals14c2,686$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.6352228%146 W · 376 L-57.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals14c2,663$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.3411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros61c2,183$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.869,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Houston Astros52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Kansas City Royals48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros50c1,797$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b87…8a0dbacked Kansas City Royals14c1,768$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x459e…7dd1backed Kansas City Royals40c1,750$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Kansas City Royals51c1,633$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.831,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Kansas City Royals48c1,383$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.623,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e3…3337backed Kansas City Royals48c1,321$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.9643253.9%233 W · 199 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Houston Astros74c1,266$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.311,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Kansas City Royals4c1,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010625.5%27 W · 79 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Houston Astros51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.4729147.1%137 W · 154 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Kansas City Royals9c1,124$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1612346.3%57 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88aa…2f5ebacked Houston Astros77c1,117$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.83948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked Houston Astros51c1,080$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.7311347.8%54 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa252…dbf4backed Houston Astros77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305070%35 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Houston Astros51c920.06$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.8360043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros51c810$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.969453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals48c759.22$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.431,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Kansas City Royals6c729.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.232,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Houston Astros52c692.3$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.394549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Houston Astros52c673.08$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.0812852.3%67 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b54…d382backed Kansas City Royals51c670.08$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.747356.2%41 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c00…8c3ebacked Kansas City Royals7c654.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.031136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ed…0a9fbacked Kansas City Royals51c648.16$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.5610145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…67fdbacked Kansas City Royals48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28837748.8%184 W · 193 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Kansas City Royals11c586.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.77529.3%22 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…96e2backed Houston Astros77c507.35$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.694854.2%26 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fb…6e68backed Kansas City Royals4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Kansas City Royals24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12036729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Kansas City Royals5c490.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Kansas City Royals11c487.13$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6254715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Houston Astros52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7722153.4%118 W · 103 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Kansas City Royals4c475$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1926315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals12c470.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.342,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked Kansas City Royals15c445.61$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1430529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Kansas City Royals9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Kansas City Royals49c408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.921,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a66…d749backed Kansas City Royals12c405.75$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf77e…b594backed Kansas City Royals3c399.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12515.9%3 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+188.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kansas City Royals51c379$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.291,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Kansas City Royals16c371.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0412641.3%52 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals12c350.89$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.736,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Kansas City Royals26c318$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8294655.3%523 W · 423 L+31.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1884…b7a5backed Houston Astros79c315.41$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4357758.6%338 W · 239 L+1.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Kansas City Royals49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Kansas City Royals11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7565651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa689…15fcbacked Kansas City Royals48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14424346.9%114 W · 129 L-1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe231…93a5backed Houston Astros51c300$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14710846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x085c…99e3backed Houston Astros50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15024448.4%118 W · 126 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed Houston Astros50c273.2$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0254945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Kansas City Royals48c260.5$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0428943.3%125 W · 164 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Kansas City Royals11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.527231.3%85 W · 187 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Kansas City Royals14c249.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3534045%153 W · 187 L+1.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Kansas City Royals17c249.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.570744.7%316 W · 391 L-22.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Kansas City Royals9c233.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.014214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Kansas City Royals14c232.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2837451.3%192 W · 182 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Houston Astros51c213$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3750748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Kansas City Royals49c209.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8922849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a07…1d4dbacked Kansas City Royals14c209$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.734546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42fb…2042backed Kansas City Royals24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8da…26cebacked Kansas City Royals21c208.15$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros51c200.01$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.671,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Kansas City Royals48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Houston Astros50c195$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.51,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Houston Astros52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3165248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Houston Astros52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3132350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Kansas City Royals8c175$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Houston Astros64c172.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1190446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Kansas City Royals12c170$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42544%11 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2b…e828backed Kansas City Royals49c165.31$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8116844%74 W · 94 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Kansas City Royals49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8043560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Houston Astros52c160$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.846749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros54c150.09$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.164,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Houston Astros56c150$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5732751.7%169 W · 158 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Kansas City Royals49c149.53$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2710249%50 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9aa…072dbacked Houston Astros52c148.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals12c142.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x43f3…293cbacked Kansas City Royals37c138.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7719550.8%99 W · 96 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals21c135.53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.612,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a11…84cbbacked Houston Astros74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142864.3%18 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…efddbacked Kansas City Royals49c130$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.77846.2%36 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.