Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x918d9e5d39a4a43783e998ed1811ff24d9e23227b3e9cf0f220642d82ed18523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leeds United FCof Chelsea FC, Leeds United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Leeds United FC | 59c | 8,000$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 5,354$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.29 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC | 39c | 3,131$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.56 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Leeds United FC | 80c | 444$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Leeds United FC | 80c | 325$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 222$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 220.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Chelsea FC | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 35.9%69 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Chelsea FC | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Chelsea FC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Leeds United FC | 80c | 49.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 337 | 53.1%179 W · 158 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Leeds United FC | 80c | 40.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Leeds United FC | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.