Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f33e2ee91cfdb0fd3703f7d810f41ab29c69eaa5c00bf7eb8ac39fac1cdc3ca

Rebuilt 48 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	64c	6,845$4,390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,455.14	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	5,040$2,423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,617.33	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	265	48.3%128 W · 137 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over	40c	1,557$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.84	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Over	20c	1,250$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Over	58c	1,246$717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$717.35	167	53.3%89 W · 78 L	-13.3wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	19c	1,025$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.79	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed Over	60c	1,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4f…0019backed Over	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	41c	965.13$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.94	741	56.8%421 W · 320 L	+46.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Over	56c	897.39$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over	47c	880.98$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.06	64	35.9%23 W · 41 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over	56c	850$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.41	152	63.2%96 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.05per pick	68cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c67…a813backed Under	80c	848.05$678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.61	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	72cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602e…e237backed Over	40c	757.88$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.71	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Over	16c	512.44$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.99	99	29.3%29 W · 70 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	80c	501.41$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.28	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x362b…9534backed Over	57c	500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x832c…c46ebacked Over	49c	488.55$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.59	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+7.1wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	55c	393.75$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.92	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over	55c	389.76$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.37	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over	32c	303.4$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.89	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-8.7wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over	56c	302.9$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	64	37.5%24 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Over	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under	56c	284.24$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.11	210	49%103 W · 107 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	48c	250$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	171	61.4%105 W · 66 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Over	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	63.3%19 W · 11 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	41c	235.88$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.83	432	41.9%181 W · 251 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…8937backed Over	56c	214.29$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…d654backed Over	47c	203.13$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.21	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	353	28.6%101 W · 252 L	-6.1wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	-12.8wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over	25c	172.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	160	45.6%73 W · 87 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x941f…acfabacked Over	15c	160$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff7…3a9dbacked Under	60c	155$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-6.2wins	-0.23per pick	60cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under	50c	151.02$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.21	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	110	53.6%59 W · 51 L	+11.1wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2dad…a040backed Over	53c	125$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.25	66	66.7%44 W · 22 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over	51c	116.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	211	43.1%91 W · 120 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Over	44c	115.91$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Under	80c	106.25$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.25	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over	47c	103.58$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	129	68.2%88 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	68cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	144	31.9%46 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0e9…5112backed Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Over	20c	99.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	224	48.7%109 W · 115 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	20c	99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	93	39.8%37 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	99	46.5%46 W · 53 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	53c	88.34$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	255	50.2%128 W · 127 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under	72c	81.42$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.04	163	57.1%93 W · 70 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a51…d812backed Over	51c	80.39$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over	33c	75.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	66	47%31 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	54c	72.32$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.38	1,934	42.4%820 W · 1,114 L	-43.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over	45c	68$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.64	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	19c	59.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	191	33%63 W · 128 L	-13.8wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Over	44c	59.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bd…a514backed Over	51c	58.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e9b…829ebacked Over	56c	58.46$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.74	162	36.4%59 W · 103 L	-13.2wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37fa…1136backed Over	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	49.4%44 W · 45 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57e8…9a6fbacked Over	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…9d34backed Over	51c	42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.45	412	60.2%248 W · 164 L	+22.5wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Under	80c	40.32$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.06	271	73.8%200 W · 71 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	76cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	62c	38$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.6	71	62%44 W · 27 L	+8.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0666…d31abacked Over	56c	33.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-18%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d91…7e2ebacked Over	41c	30.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b9…0a0dbacked Over	49c	28.83$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	144	63.9%92 W · 52 L	+9.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bca…24aebacked Over	55c	23.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.16per pick	42cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5032…d300backed Under	75c	18.66$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.66	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5this page
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event