NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x919092dcfd147bae8c4a31d11e36c55f0903dbd033774eef079517f62ce1ba9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 50c | 2,709$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.5 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 3c | 1,800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 384 | 45.8%176 W · 208 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 903.4$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.63 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 326.42$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 297.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.64 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 43c | 264$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 114$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 50c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 56.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 52c | 54.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 53.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 34c | 34.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…4bb1backed Over | 47c | 30.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Blackhawks won
- Stars vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Stars vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.