NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94bbc446cce6d8219757d1daebf008e0a6bb8edf151a6eb7799c25cbbe23c3d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Stars, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blackhawks | 60c | 3,456$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.76 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Stars | 40c | 1,585$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Stars | 40c | 690$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Stars | 41c | 341.64$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5c…e4f6backed Stars | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Stars | 43c | 231.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Stars | 40c | 221$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…9961backed Stars | 40c | 183.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Stars | 33c | 154.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blackhawks | 67c | 147.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Blackhawks | 58c | 140.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Blackhawks | 57c | 104.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Blackhawks | 58c | 100.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Stars | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Blackhawks | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Stars | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Stars | 36c | 69.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Stars | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Blackhawks | 64c | 56.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Stars | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…11ecbacked Blackhawks | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Blackhawks | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Stars | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Blackhawks | 55c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blackhawks | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Stars vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Stars vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.