Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c88ac06e05c3aada2c71e184bc242839782f87fefbfbb383ad2b52fef29a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Rune Eaters, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6218…f388backed Rune Eaters | 41c | 10,923$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,445.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…a5e9backed Rune Eaters | 2c | 4,700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Aurora | 58c | 3,224$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 60c | 3,183$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.38 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…9562backed Aurora | 75c | 1,515$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Aurora | 64c | 1,271$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.9 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Rune Eaters | 32c | 1,206$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.88 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 64c | 1,076$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.76 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Aurora | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb14…49b2backed Rune Eaters | 44c | 910.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…302abacked Aurora | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 65c | 552$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…215ebacked Rune Eaters | 40c | 402.28$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Rune Eaters | 13c | 378.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…b8a0backed Rune Eaters | 9c | 357.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Rune Eaters | 6c | 289.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Aurora | 58c | 259$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Rune Eaters | 11c | 121.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca6d…492bbacked Rune Eaters | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…b348backed Aurora | 65c | 101.54$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…cbe5backed Aurora | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Rune Eaters | 15c | 85.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 72c | 83.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Rune Eaters | 33c | 79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 64c | 71.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Aurora | 66c | 71.35$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Rune Eaters | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Aurora | 79c | 51.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Rune Eaters | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Aurora | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 46.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Aurora | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 64c | 40.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Aurora | 77c | 40.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -82%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Aurora | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Aurora | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 73c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Aurora | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.