TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Rune Eaters, Aurora
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Rune Eaters0c3,812$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.666169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Aurora74c3,591$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.535761.4%35 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Rune Eaters30c3,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8611346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Aurora74c3,248$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.1920452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters11c2,163$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.372,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Rune Eaters6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204854.2%26 W · 22 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters22c2,000$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.4946535.1%163 W · 302 L+22.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters23c1,960$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Rune Eaters32c1,750$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora76c1,667$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.232854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Rune Eaters26c1,428$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2611855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora70c1,381$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.3489440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Rune Eaters28c1,200$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33649133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Aurora70c1,055$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.849145.1%41 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Rune Eaters28c699.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6614538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Rune Eaters16c641.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked Aurora71c600$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17718649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…1d29backed Rune Eaters30c551.34$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Aurora72c528.28$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.831735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-43.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rune Eaters22c524.12$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.7214121.3%30 W · 111 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-60.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Rune Eaters31c494.67$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Rune Eaters22c469$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1879341.7%331 W · 462 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Aurora75c453.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.555044%22 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Rune Eaters26c442.31$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11511955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Rune Eaters24c435.64$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9186949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Rune Eaters27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10887645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora72c389.33$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0136054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2d0…6078backed Aurora72c372.06$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.94254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Rune Eaters29c341.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Rune Eaters19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5737832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc00f…0f52backed Aurora70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Rune Eaters25c274$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.597830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa134…3ba2backed Rune Eaters21c262.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.311729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Rune Eaters26c224.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3811947.1%56 W · 63 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Rune Eaters27c221.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7839936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Rune Eaters12c214.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.392740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Rune Eaters20c210$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4264123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Aurora70c206.9$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0716835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf422…ea56backed Aurora78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5629047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Rune Eaters29c199.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.992326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aurora73c193$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4411145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a10…cf6cbacked Rune Eaters29c165.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Aurora70c161.92$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5867853.5%363 W · 315 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Rune Eaters16c157.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.823286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x95d8…2922backed Aurora72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rune Eaters27c149.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7260542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Rune Eaters9c145.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.423735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Aurora73c137.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.45147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x955f…a811backed Aurora73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.992544%11 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora79c135.44$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4235758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Rune Eaters31c129.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Rune Eaters23c128.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.753139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Aurora69c117.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.298137%30 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Rune Eaters27c113.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.312231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Aurora74c113.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7214537.2%54 W · 91 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f27…781dbacked Aurora74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick77cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked Rune Eaters18c96.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.674938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Rune Eaters26c96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.964445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora72c93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1447748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6385…e191backed Rune Eaters16c90.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora73c90$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1974…bc18backed Rune Eaters28c88.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-82%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Aurora72c78.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.111753%62 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Aurora68c74.19$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5366662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Rune Eaters22c71.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.791931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Aurora68c71.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.784136.6%15 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc54d…8649backed Rune Eaters24c61.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…f272backed Rune Eaters25c59.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152619.2%5 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick43cpaid-59.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc17e…7094backed Aurora72c59.86$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ad…0614backed Aurora70c54.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.243540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Aurora75c53.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.338361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd16…07bbbacked Rune Eaters22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed Aurora70c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1523347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac3d…660cbacked Aurora71c40.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.924100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7927…34d2backed Aurora78c38.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x390c…e88ebacked Aurora72c31.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.691258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Aurora75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.519856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Aurora70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.961838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f23…e2c8backed Aurora71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171450%7 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6097…66b2backed Aurora62c18.23$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3824…5d94backed Aurora80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.