Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x552d5873eee83771d9218d277ba31e0bd87677a995c2b093bf1102ac052e580c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Rune Eaters, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 3,250$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Aurora | 51c | 2,549$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.81 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 42c | 2,391$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,391.2 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 1,901$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.95 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Rune Eaters | 35c | 1,730$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Aurora | 50c | 1,077$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.95 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Rune Eaters | 14c | 907.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.39 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Rune Eaters | 19c | 786.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Rune Eaters | 4c | 510.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…abccbacked Aurora | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters | 23c | 399.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd7…215ebacked Aurora | 75c | 235.92$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 213.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Rune Eaters | 12c | 210.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed Aurora | 73c | 204.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Rune Eaters | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Rune Eaters | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 71c | 156.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Aurora | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 134.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 15c | 131.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Aurora | 49c | 109.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…f42fbacked Rune Eaters | 31c | 105.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…6bfebacked Rune Eaters | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Rune Eaters | 51c | 92.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora | 14c | 76.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…5211backed Rune Eaters | 26c | 75.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Aurora | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…e0cebacked Rune Eaters | 17c | 64.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Aurora | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 36c | 59.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed Rune Eaters | 24c | 59.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -82%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Rune Eaters | 21c | 56.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 30.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Aurora | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Aurora | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c76…0d35backed Aurora | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.