TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 119.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa800…bd7abacked Over48c5,787$2,805 inWon+$2,982.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under52c2,215$1,158 inLost-$1,158.0846246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c1,635$836 inLost-$835.715,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under53c1,206$639 inLost-$639.221,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb8…2f90backed Over49c809.19$397 inWon+$412.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under51c410.05$208 inLost-$207.8819958.3%116 W · 83 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under51c288.65$147 inLost-$147.217749.4%38 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under51c245.87$125 inLost-$125.396251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under51c245.87$125 inLost-$125.397146.5%33 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under67c190.25$127 inLost-$127.334,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under51c57.2$29 inLost-$29.178246.3%38 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Under54c21.67$12 inLost-$11.642458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.