MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92281f31f0fea8352de1744d2a20662d6f87b835c0ee8d6bcef88d8a01ef78b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 12,303$6,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,151.74 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 11,771$5,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,891.93 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…523cbacked Under | 51c | 5,909$3,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…9fadbacked Over | 49c | 4,777$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,357.81 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Under | 50c | 3,019$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.48 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 1,813$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.57 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 1,123$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 938.88$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 52c | 933.85$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.6 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 48c | 706.42$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.08 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 69c | 554$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 30c | 482.19$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.66 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 449.6$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.01 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 50c | 359.2$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Over | 51c | 321.27$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.85 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 20c | 257.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 250$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.25 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 50c | 242.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 239.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 50c | 135.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 112.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 97.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 16c | 73.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 70.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 49c | 68.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 38c | 61.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 52c | 55.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 50c | 52.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 46.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 50c | 42.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 41.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 64c | 31.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 61c | 30.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 25.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 65c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Under | 54c | 20.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 66c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.