MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d074d7bb7df52343a1892377d7e1e9e7c221e9ac1151c7df37bfcd24b8f06d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof New York Mets, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 8,713$5,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.15 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…c8d3backed New York Mets | 41c | 4,823$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.43 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 40c | 3,941$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 3,691$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.37 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 45c | 2,942$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,200$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 1,190$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,157$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.42 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 1,126$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.9 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 40c | 612.41$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed New York Mets | 41c | 588.63$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.15 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf209…15b9backed New York Mets | 41c | 578.75$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New York Mets | 45c | 572.4$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.45 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked New York Mets | 46c | 508.81$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.72 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 40c | 500.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked New York Mets | 40c | 446.33$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 414.26$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.85 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Mets | 41c | 334.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked New York Mets | 25c | 267.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 75c | 262.01$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce3…07b5backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 250.41$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed New York Mets | 40c | 241$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 235.22$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Mets | 44c | 225.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 75c | 213.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked New York Mets | 41c | 196.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 194.48$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 158.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.24 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked New York Mets | 28c | 158.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 141.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed New York Mets | 19c | 136.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed New York Mets | 43c | 126.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked New York Mets | 40c | 125.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…7645backed New York Mets | 42c | 114.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 108.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked New York Mets | 42c | 108.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 89.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed New York Mets | 37c | 76.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 74.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bf…91bfbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 73.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 57.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked New York Mets | 46c | 52.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 52.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 48.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed New York Mets | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked New York Mets | 35c | 43.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 37.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed New York Mets | 40c | 35.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 31.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed New York Mets | 40c | 29.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 28.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 22.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 21.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…7052backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 18.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.