MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe524b4cebca79d17f26826995d821fabacc942f71ba4867f609be312eee0b574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 43c | 4,484$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.21 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 2,813$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.98 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 2,720$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.8 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 57c | 1,860$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.8 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 1,572$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.13 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,397$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.04 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 58c | 1,247$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.32 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.9 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 57c | 1,045$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.39 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 799.94$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.97 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 394.06$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 57c | 256.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 251.3$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 55c | 250.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 43c | 241.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 75c | 237.17$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a2…3c41backed Over | 47c | 204.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 56c | 204$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 58c | 194.96$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.88 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…0924backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 42c | 143$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 142.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 132.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 75c | 132.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 56c | 125.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 73c | 104.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 73c | 104.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 56c | 87.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 43c | 79.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 72.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 58c | 70.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 55c | 68.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Over | 45c | 66.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 55c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 55c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 55c | 62.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 44c | 55.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 70c | 34.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Under | 57c | 33.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 72c | 31.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…85f8backed Under | 57c | 30.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 43c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 69c | 28.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 42c | 26.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…d19bbacked Under | 58c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.