NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92386e41e7bdd916dad70d597065220cc30ac29f44bfd2001d3eec719be4c19c

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof 76ers, Hawks
Resolved: Dec 1, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,018 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked 76ers	53c	7,132$3,804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,803.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03a9…37babacked 76ers	54c	6,116$3,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,301.75	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks	46c	6,034$2,776 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,258.33	726	48.3%351 W · 375 L	+30.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8786…982dbacked Hawks	52c	4,100$2,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,968	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd49…4b3bbacked 76ers	48c	4,100$1,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,968	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	50c	2,162$1,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,090.12	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed 76ers	52c	1,685$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.04	176	58%102 W · 74 L	+13.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	48c	1,666$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$866.32	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers	57c	1,107$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.42	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed 76ers	48c	626.97$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.95	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed 76ers	49c	505.91$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.9	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Hawks	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Hawks	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Hawks	50c	344.4$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.82	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked 76ers	49c	243$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.17	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked 76ers	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked 76ers	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	294	58.5%172 W · 122 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed 76ers	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Hawks	54c	137.04$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.04	324	50%162 W · 162 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Hawks	49c	104.08$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.08	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…9ad0backed 76ers	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked 76ers	52c	99.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Hawks	51c	99.99$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed 76ers	52c	99.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Hawks	49c	66.25$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.96	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f2…5648backed Hawks	48c	66$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.32	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed 76ers	51c	54$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x075a…8d34backed Hawks	54c	46.3$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.3	128	58.6%75 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked 76ers	49c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19f…f745backed Hawks	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 76ers	49c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Hawks	45c	30$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.5	246	53.3%131 W · 115 L	+10.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Hawks	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hawks	62c	28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.64	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Hawks	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 76ers	54c	21.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c7…f12fbacked Hawks	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	75	46.7%35 W · 40 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event