Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923a568012b8ca9289d74dd7f682b399079766dc8cdf16e5b563cbbde113c8f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,020$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 862.72$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.79 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 27c | 780.03$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…4015backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4965…176fbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 66c | 436.74$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.49 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 29c | 292.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 59c | 259.43$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 257.14$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 28c | 253.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 189.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 79c | 148.73$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed Yes | 30c | 132.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 54c | 130$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…4be7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 95.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…a45cbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 85.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 24c | 79.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 28c | 71.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 58c | 69.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d32…fe50backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 28c | 43.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-12-19?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.